第八十五章《胡适英文论著：中国外交》（2）

第八十五章《胡适英文论著：中国外交》（2）  afterall,emigrationmustbeavoluntaryaffair,anditsesslargelydependsupontheabilityoftheemigrantstosurvivethenewclimaticconditionsandcompeteeconomicallywiththeindigenouspopulation.thejapaneseagriculturalemigrantisneverathomeinthesevereclimates,andasanindividualheisnotabletocompeteessfullywiththechinesefarmerortrader.therefore,thirtyyearsofmilitaryconquestandpoliticaldominationinformosa,korea,andmanchuriahavenothelpedtosolvethejapaneseproblemofpopulationpressure.

itseemsquiteclearthat,afterall,muchofthetalkaboutpopulationpressureisunreal,andisentertainedonlyasathinjustificationfornakedterritorialaggression;foritisanundeniablefactthatthehave-notnationsaretheverynationswhichareconsciouslyandmostenergeticallyencouragingrapidgrowthsintheirpopulation.onlyyesterday(march31)wereadmussoliniexpressinghisgreatsatisfactioninthefactthat"withinthecurrentyearitalywillhaveforty-fourmillioninhabitants"and"intenyearsitwillattaininitshometerritoryalonefiftymillion."andtheexplanationisnotfartoseek;formussolinisaidinthesamespeech:"withoutmenthebattalionscannotbemade,andittakesmanymentomakebigbattalions."

certainlyjapan,whichprohibitsthesaleofbirthcontrolliteratureandappliancesandwhichrepeatedlyrefusestopermitmrs.margaretsangertolandinjapan,isnotreallyworriedaboutthepressureofpopulation!

thequestionofrawmaterials

next,iwishtopointoutthatitisequallyfallacioustosaythatitisnecessaryforanationtorelyuponforceforinsuringsuppliesofrawmaterials.itisagenerallyacceptedtruismthat,intimeofpeacefulandnormalcommerce,rawmaterialsofallnationsareopentoallwhocanpayforthem.anationlikejapan,whichimportsrubber,oil,ironore,pigiron,scrapiron,tin,lead,nickel,andaluminumfromforeigncountries,isalwayswelcomedasabestcustomer.noforceorpoliticaldominationisnecessarytoinsuretheconstantsupplyofallneededmaterialsforherindustries.

moreover,itdoesnotpayanationtoreplacethenormalsupplyofrawmaterialsbyartificiallyandpoliticallycreatingnewsources,becausesuchattemptsateconomicself-sufficiencyoftenleadtoillfeeling,resentmentandretaliationonthepartofoldsuppliersofsuchmaterials.supposejapancancontrolnorthchinaandconvertitintoapoliticallydominatedregionforincreasedproductionofcottonandwool,whichshallinthenottoodistantfuturereplaceagreatportionofherpresentimportofcottonfromamericaandindia,andofwoolfromaustralia.theeconomicdislocationthuscreatedinthecottonandwoolcountrieswillnaturallyproduceinternationalreactions,theseriousnessofwhichnoamountofeconomicgaincaneasilyoffset.

and,afterall,itisphysicallyimpossibleforanynation,orevenforanyeconomicblocofnations,tosecurepoliticalcontrolofallpossiblesourcesofrawmaterials.thatistosay,strictlyspeaking,economicself-sufficiencyisimpossible.eventheunitesstatesmustdependupontheoutsideworldforrubber,tin,nickel,andmanganese;eventheunionofsovietsocialistrepublicsisdeficientinrubber,tin,bauxite,andnickel.eventhebritishempirehastorelyuponoutsidesupplyofpetroleumandcotton.

thecaseofjapanisevenmoreserious.byconquestofthewholeofmanchuria,shecanincreasehersuppliesofcoal,ironore,timber,salt,andsoybeans.butsheneedscotton,wool,cokingcoal,andmoreironandcoal;soshehasbeentalkingaboutaneconomicblocofjapanandtheso-calledmanchukuo,andnorthchina.supposeshesecurescompletecontrolofnorthchina(whichiamsureshecannot),itwilltakedecadestodevelopthenewsuppliesofcottonandwool,anditwilltakestupendouscapitalinvestmentstodevelopminingandnewtransportationinordertomakethecoalandironofshansiandshensiaccessibletojapaneseindustry.but,eventhen,shewillhavefurthertoconquersouthwesternchinainordertocontrolthesupplyofantimony,tungsten,tin,andwooloil.andsupposeshecouldcompleteherchineseconquest(which,again,shecannot),shewouldstillbecompletelylackinginoil,rubber,potash,bauxite,andnickel,andpartlydeficientincopper,lead,zinc,phosphates,andwool.

thelogicalconclusionofeconomicself-sufficiencyistheconquestofthewholeworld!

politicalambition

apartfromitseconomicabsurdities,theforcephilosophyofthehave-notsispoliticallysuicidal.asamatterofhistoricaltruth,thephilosophyofthehave-notsisessentiallypoliticalinnatureandorigin,itseconomicdoctrinesbeinglargelysuperimposedrationalizations.itisabsurd,forexample,totalkaboutpopulationpressureandatthesametimeactivelyencouragepopulationgrowth!behindtheeconomicjargon,therealmotivatingforceisafantasticdreamofunlimitedpoliticalpower.hitlerdreamsofhisnewgermanicempire;mussolini,hisnewromanempire;andthejapanesemilitary,theirgreatcontinentaljapaneseempireandtheirworldempirewhich,ashideyoshidreamedthreehundredyearsago,shallcoverthewholeworldwhereverthesunshines.

inattemptstosecurepoliticalpower,thedictatorsofthehave-notnationshavebeenfairlyessful.mussolini,inthirteenyears,hasremadeitaly;hitler,insixyears,hasforcefullybroughtaboutmanyredressesofgermany'sgrievancesunderthepeacetreatyofparis.andthejapanesemilitary,too,haveeededinatleasttemporarilyreconsolidatingtheirpoliticalpoweragainstthedangersofarisingindustrialdemocracywhichthreatenedtolimitthepoliticalcontrolofthemilitarycaste.

butthispoliticalessofanindividualoraclassshouldnotblindustothestupendouslosseswhichtheirrespectivenationshavehadtosustaininincreasednationaleconomicburdens,insacrificesofindividuallibertyandstandardsofliving,andintheinternationalenmityandantagonismarousedallround.

takethecaseofjapan.inthesevenyearssinceherfirstinvasionofchinain1931,japanhashadtoincreasehernationalexpenditurebyfourtimes,hermilitaryandnavalexpenditurebyeighttimes,andhernationaldebtbyalmost100percent.andthewarinchinaisonlyeightmonthsyoung.itisestimatedbyexperteconomiststhatthetotalgoldreserveofjapan,includinghernewlyminedgold,willbeexhaustedbytheendof1938,andthatbythesametimetherewillbeatleastfivebillionyen'sworthofunsoldgovernmentbondswhichthemarketcannotpossiblyabsorb.

andwhatadegradationofjapan'spositioninthefamilyofnationsinthesesixyears!priorto1931,japansatatgenevaasoneofthe"bigfour,"enjoyingthehonorandrespectofthewholeworld.now,sheisthenationunanimouslycondemnedbysixtynationsasthelawbreaker,theaggressor,andthedisturberofworldpeace!insteadofenjoyingthehighestrespectofanorderedworld,sheisnowfindingherselfinthenecessityoffightingdesperatelyinordertomaintainherprestigeandposition!

withoutindulginginidlespeculationsastotheultimateoutcomeofthewar,itissafetosayatleastthatjapanismuchworseofftodaythanshewasin1931,andthatpoliticallyshehaslosteverythingsheenjoyedbeforesheembarkedonherpathofaggression.politicallyshehasdegradedherselffromanunquestionablysupremepowerofthewesternpacificintooneofthebelligerentsfightingdesperately,assheherselfclaims,forherveryexistence.anditisquitepossibleforanationtothrowoverboardalmostovernightallthewonderfulachievementsofsixdecadesofhardlabor.

fallacyofaggression

hereinliesthefundamentalpoliticalfallacyofthisphilosophyofthehave-notswhichseekstodestroythestatusquoinorderthattheythemselvesmayhavemorepossessionsattheexpenseofotherpeoples.itfailstounderstandandappreciatethepoliticalimportanceofaninternationalorderwhichnotmerelyprotectsthestatusquoofthesmallandweaknations,butalsoguaranteesandlegalizesthepossessions,thepower,andtheprestigeofthegreatandstrongnations.itfailstounderstandthatlawandorder,internationallyaswellasinternally,howevertroublesomeandinconvenienttheymayseemtoourselfishdesires,arebetterthananarchyandchaos.

thesamerestrictionsoflawandorderthatrestrainthestrongfromplunderingtheweak,atthesametimeprotectthestatusquoofthegreatandthepowerful.youcannotdestroythestatusquoofsomebodyelsewithoutatthesametimeunderminingtheveryfoundationoflawandorderwhich,andwhichalone,guaranteesyourownrightsandyourownsecurity.

ithastakenpoliticalscienceacenturytoaccepttheviewthatthereisnosuchthingasanaturalrightoftheindividual,andthatarightisthatwhichsocietyorthestaterecognizesandguaranteesanindividualtoenjoyagainstitsinfringementbyothers.itishightimeforpoliticalthinkerstoprovetotheaggressornationsthatthereisnosuchthingasanaturalrightofthestronginthefamilyofnations;thatthepossessionsofthestrongarejustasmuchprotectedbyagenerallyacceptedschemeoflawandorderasthoseoftheweak;thatnonation,howeverstrong,caneverfeelsecureinasituationofinternationalanarchy;andthattheaggressors,intheirruthlessstrifeformorepossessionsbydisregardingalllegalrestrictionsandtreatyobligations,areconstantlyindangeroflosingwhattheyalreadyhave.

whereisaustrianow,whichwasoneofthegreatpowersbefore1914?andwhereisthatgreatgermanynow,whichin1914wasfirstinscienceandart,ineducationandsociallegislation,intechnologyandindustry—firstinallartsofpeaceaswellasofwar—whereisshenow?

eventhecomparativeessofhitlerandmussoliniintheiruseofforcetoupsetthepostwarstatusquodoesnotproveanexceptiontothesegeneralconsiderations.indeed,hitlerandmussoliniareexceptionsthatprovetherule.havetheynotbeenseriouslytroubledbythestimsondoctrineofnonrecognitionofsituationsbroughtaboutbyforceinviolationofexistingbondsofinternationallawandorder?whyisitthatthe"recognitionofmanchukuo"bytinysalvadorsomeyearsagowashailedintokyoasagreatjapanesediplomaticess?whyisitthatbritishwillingnesstoreopenthequestionofrecognitionofitalianconquestofethiopiaatthecomingmeetingoftheleagueofnationsshouldfiguresoprominentlyinthenewbritish-italiannegotiations?isitnotbecausethosewhohavesetouttodestroythestatusquoofthepostwarworldhavealsofounditmostinconvenienttohaveitsnewstatusunrecognizedandthereforeunprotectedbytheveryinternationalorderagainstwhichtheyhadloudlyprotested?

achinesephilosopherofthesecondcenturyb.c.oncetoldhisemperor:"sire,youhaveconqueredtheempireonhorseback,butcanyouruleitonhorsebacktoo?"eventheaggressorsthemselvesaredemonstratingtotheworldthatmeremightdoesnotmakeright,andthatnonationissecureinitspossessionsanddominionwithoutbeingrecognizedandlegitimatizedbysomeformofinternationalorder.

thephilosophyofforce

thisbringsmetoadiscussionofthephilosophyofforceingeneral.thegreatesttragedyininternationalthinkingtoday,itseemstome,liesinthefactthatboththechauvinistsandtheisolationistpacifistsagreeintheirrelianceuponforce.theybothbelievethatforceistheonlysolution.theyallfailtoseethatwhatiswrongwiththeworldtodayisnotthatforceprevails,butthatforcedoesnotandcannotprevail.

inthewholehistoryofmankind,therehasneverbeenagreaterdisplayofforcethanthelastworldwar,inwhichtwohundredbillionsofdollarswerespentandsixty-fivemillionmenweremobilizedbybothsides,ofwhicheightandahalfmillionwerekilledandtwenty-onemillionwerewounded.whatdidthatmoststupendoususeofforceaccomplish?nothing—practicallynothing!

whycouldnotthegreatestemploymentofforceachieveanything?becauseforcewasnotusedinanorganizedform.becauseforcewaswastedintheprocessofcreatingrivalforceswhichcanceledeachotherandresultedinmutualdestruction.

forcecannotprevailuntilitisorganizedanddirectedtowardsacommondesirableobjective,soastominimizeresistanceandfrictionandtoinsurethemaximumeconomyandefficiencyinitsexpenditure.whenforceisthusorganizedanddirectedtowardtheco?perativeachievementofsomepositiveendsofcommoninterest,itbecomeslawandorder.forlawisnothingbut,inthewordsofjohndewey,"astatementoftheconditionsoftheorganizationofenergies(forces)which,whenunorganized,wouldresultinviolence—thatis,destructionandwaste."

thebestexampleoforganizedandefficientuseofforceisthetrafficsignalsatthestreet-cornersinthecities.thesegreenandredlight-signalsarenotalwaysguardedbypolicemenarmedwithgunsormachineguns,andyettheyarerespectedbyallmotoristsandpedestrianswhounderstandthattheyrepresenttheorganizedforceofthecommunitydirectedtowardsagenerallyacknowledgedobjectiveofcommoninterest.theseautomaticallyoperatedlight-signalshavebecomeapartofthelawandorderofthecommunity.

asaphilosopher,imaybepermittedtoventureaprophecythatthegravityoftheworldsituation,theprevalenceofinternationalanarchy,andthefrightfullycostlywastefulnessof"edindividualism"inarmamentsanddefense,willbeforelongcompelmankindtorealizethefutilityofunorganizedforce,andtoendeavortorevive,reform,andreinforcethatworldorderwhichrepresenteddecadesofidealisticthinking,andthedestructionofwhichbytheaggressornationsisnowthreateningtoplungehumanityintotheabyssofanotherworldconflagration.

itisonlyinaworldundersomeformoflawandorderthatthehave-notsandthehavesmayliveinpeaceandprosperbysharingwhattheyhave.

whatcanamericadointhefareastsituation

thechinaweeklyreview

sep.24,1938.vol.86.

thisismyproposition:whileifullysympathizewithyournationwidedesiretokeepoutofthewar,icannothelpthinkingthatmerenegativepacifismwithoutbeingbackedbyaconstructivepeacepolicyisneversufficienttoguaranteetoyouthepeaceyousodearlydesire.whatchinaexpectsofamerica—indeedwhatthewholecivilizedworldexpectsofamerica—isanactiveandpositiveleadershipforinternationalpeaceandjustice,aleadershiptopreventwars,tocallahalttoaggressions,toplanandcooperatewiththedemocraciesoftheworldtobringaboutcollectivesecurity,andtomakethisworldatleastsafeforhumanitytolivein.

"iamsurethatthepeopleofthisgreatrepublichaveenoughimaginationtorealizethatthiscountryissufficientlypowerfultoundertakesuchactiveconstructiveleadershipforpeacewithoutincurringtheriskofbeinginvolvedininternationalintriguesandwars.onthecontrary,itmayturnoutthatsuchactiveinternationalleadershipmaybeafteralltheonlyeffectivemeanstoachievetheendofkeepingyourselvesoutofthewar.

"when32yearsago,agreatamericanpresidentcalledahalttoabloodywarandbroughtaboutpeacebetweenjapanandrussia,didhetherebyinvolvethiscountryinawar?

"whenagain17yearsago,theamericangovernmentcalledthewashingtonconferencewhichgavetenyearsofpeacetothefareastandwhichputabrakeontherivalryinnavalarmamentsfortenyears,didittherebyinvolvethiscountryinaworldwar?"

thatwaswhatisaidtotheamericannationninemonthsago.duringtheseninemonthsthreesetsofeventshavedevelopedinconnectionwiththefareasternsituation,andiamsurethesedevelopmentshavenotescapedyournotice.first,chinahasbeenliterallybleedingtodeath.therehavebeenonemillionwarcasualities,includingthekilledandwounded.thesearenow,accordingtomostconservativeestimates,atleast60,000,000civiliansuffererswhoarefleeingthearmiesoftheinvaderandarerovingthecountrywithoutshelter,withoutmedicalaid,andinmostcaseswithoutthebarestmeansofsubsistence.andthereareeverydayhundredsofinnocentnon-combatantsbeingmurderedandslaughteredbythebombersoftheimperialarmyofjapan.andthefloodsoftheyellowriverareaddingothermillionofciviliansufferers.

theseconddevelopmenthasbeenthegradualintensificationofthesympathyoftheamericanpeopleforchinainthepresentconflict.theamericanpeoplehaveneverbeenneutralinthesino-japanesewar.youcannotbeneutralinasituationwheretherightandwrongareasclearasdayandnight:nay,yoursympathyisatleast99percentonthesideofchinaandagainstjapan.yoursympathyisbestevidencedinyourgenerousresponsetoallkindsofappealsformedicalaidandcivilianreliefinchina,inyourenthusiasticparticipationinthevoluntaryboycottagainstjapanesegoods,andparticularlyinyourrecentoutburstofindignationagainsttheruthlessandinhumanbombingofthecivilianpopulationincantonandothercities.wheniwastravelingincanadaafewmonthsago,anewspaperintervieweraskedme:"whatgoodcanallthissympathydotochinainthewar?"isaidtohim:"youngman,don'tunderestimatethevalueofthisoverwhelmingsympathy.itmakesaworldofdifferenceinamodernwarwhetheryouarefightingwiththeconvictionthatthesympathyofthecivilizedworldiswithyouoryouarefightingintheconsciousnessthatthewholecivilizedworldiscondemningorcursingyou."andwearequiteconfidentthatthedaywillcome,asitdidcomein1917,whentheimmensesympathyofagreatnation,underidealisticleadership,willexpressitselfincollectiveactionandpracticalstatesmanship.

thethirddevelopmenthasbeenthedefiniteformulationofanamericanpolicytowardthefareasternsituation.inaseriesofwidelypublisheddocuments,datedfromlastjulytomarchandmayofthisyear,thegreatleadersoftheamericangovernmenthaveannouncedtothewholeworldadefiniteandconsciouslythought-outpolicywithregardtothefareasternsituation.thegistofthatpolicy,asyouallwellknow,isanunreservedcondemnationofinternationalanarchyandadeterminedadvocacyofthemaintenanceofinternationalpeaceandjusticebytherestorationofthereignoflawamongthenations.onseveraloccasions,yoursecretaryofstate,mr.cordellhull,hasdeclared:"theinterestandconcernoftheunitedstatesinthefareastarenotmeasuredalonebythenumberofamericancitizensresidingthere,orbythevolumeofinvestmentandtrade.thereisamuchbroaderandmorefundamentalinterest—whichis,thatorderlyprocessesininternationalrelationshipsbemaintained."andlastoctober,presidentrooseveltsaidinhisfamouschicagospeech:"mostimportantofall,thewillforpeaceonthepartofpeace-lovingnationsmustexpressitself,totheendthatnationsthatmaybetemptedtoviolatetheiragreementsandtherightsofotherwilldesistfromacourse.theremustbepositiveendeavorstopreservepeace."thesestatementsrepresentthecentralpointsoftheamericangovernment'sfareasternpolicy,whichisexactlythetypeofpositiveandconstructiveinternationalleadershipthatthepeace-lovingpeopleofthewholeworldhavebeenexpecting,andhavearighttoexpect,fromthepeopleandgovernmentofthemostpowerfulandmostpeace-lovingnationinthemodernworld.

thesearethethingsthathavedevelopedduringtheseterriblemonths:first,chinaisrapidlybleedingtodeath;second,theimmensesympathyoftheentireamericannationonthesideofchinaisbecomingmoreandmoreintensifiedandarticulate;andthirdly,theamericangovernmenthasbeenproclaimingtotheworldthattheremustbepositiveendeavorstopreservepeaceandrestoreorder.

asarepresentativeofasufferingnationinamostunjustwar,icanonlyexpressmyownpioushopeandthepioushopeofmypeoplethatthepositiveandconstructivepolicypledgedbythegreatleadersoftheamericangovernmentmaybeeffectivelycarriedoutbeforelong,andthattheunanimoussympathyoftheamericannationformypeopleindistressmayexpressitselfinanactivesupportofthegovernmentinits"positiveendeavorstopreservepeace."iaskfornomore.andiamsuremypeopleaskfornomore.

butidowishtoaddonemorewordofappeal.foralmostfully12months,mypeoplehavebeenmakingasupremeeffortinresistingtheinvaderandfightingforourthreatenednationalexistence.youandthewholeworldarewitnessesofthissupremeeffort.butthatsupremeeffortisnotenough.thereisalimittotheabilityofhumanfleshandbloodinfightingagainstmuchsuperiormechanicalequipment.andthereisalwaysthedangerofcollapsethroughsheerexhaustion.itissimplyirresponsiblewishfulthinkingthatchinacansaveherselfbyherownmilitaryresistancealone.iamnotashamedinsayingso,becauseevenfrancewhichhadhad44yearsofintensivemilitarypreparationcouldnotsaveherselfin1914.iamrealisticenoughtoadmitthat,inordertoshortenthisterriblewar,restoreinternationalorderinpacificarea,andrelievetheacutesufferingofscoresofmillionsofpeople,somepositiveinternationalactionisabsolutelynecessary.andifchinaisworthsavingatall,andiftherecanbe"positiveendeavors"topreservepeaceandsaveasufferingnation,thatsalvationmustcomebeforethecollapseoftheunifiedandeffectivecentralauthorityinchinawhichithastakentwenty-sevenlongyearstobuildup.

thefareasternsituation

thechinesechristianstudent

dec.,1938andjan.,1939.vol.29.no.3.pp.9-10.

itisagreatpleasuretohavetheprivilegeofspeakingtoyouagainthisevening.inmylastlecture,ihavepointedoutthatthesituationinchinanowwasverygrave.francecouldnotsaveherselfwithfortyyearsofmilitarypreparation.itisawilddreamthatwecouldsaveourcountrybymilitaryforcealone.

since1931,ihavebeenfightingagainsttheenthusiasmforwar.japanhassixtyyearsofpreparation,whilechinahaslessthansix.thosewhohavebeentalkingofwarlightlythoughtthatrussia,england,oramericawouldcometoourhelp.thereisnogroundforbelievingthattheywillhelpusmilitarily.russiaclaimedtohave1,000planesinsiberia,seemingtobemostreadytojumpin.englandmighteasilygetinvolvedbecauseherimportantinterestsinthefareastwouldbeatstake.americaisthoughttobeabletoassistusonaccountofhertraditionalfriendshipwithchina.butthosewhoreallyunderstandtheinternationalsituationknowthattheconditionisexactlywhatthejapanesemilitaristshavesurmised;thatis,neitheroneoftheabovementionednationswouldcometoourassistancemilitarily.

afterourcontinualfailuresinwarsaswellasindiplomaticrelations,the"papertiger"wastornupandsotherewasnomoredignityattachedtoit.japanwascleverenoughtopunchthe"papertiger."thatiswhyforsixyearsihavebeenwritingagainstwar.since1935,isawthatwarwasinevitable,andichangedmyattitude.evenaslateaslastaugust,itriedtoavoidthewaror,atleast,topostponeit.butoncethewarisdeclared,theonlywaybywhichchinacanbesavedisinternationalaction.wecan'teasilysaythatjapanwouldbeexhausted.pefferandotherpacifistsandisolationistscherishthiswishfulthinkingtomeetthepsychologyofamericansaswellaschinese."letchinawinthewarandletusdonothing."thatisthepsychologyofthepacifists.don'tbemistakenbysuchanoptimisticestimate!